At the 9:00 AM ET opening bell, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were up 11cts at $77.10 bbl, which is still off Tuesday’s 2-1/2 month high on the continuation chart at $79.69.

   August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures edged up 0.76cts to $2.0040 gal, while August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures rose by 0.44cts to $2.0678. Both products traded higher a short while ago.

   The oil market continues to look for direction, pressed between yesterday’s bearish data showing crude supplies rose by whopping 7.3 million bbl and bullish investor sentiment following upbeat economic data from Europe and strong U.S. corporate earnings, which boosted equities and weakened the U.S. dollar.

   On a technical level, the September crude contract failed to break over $80.00 this week, but there remains the possibility that the contract could make a run for that psychologically important resistance level, and if it climbs over that, then it could set up last year’s high at $87.19 as the next resistance level, said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover.

   “For now, though, we have a failure to advance and the bears will be given the opportunity to press quotes back towards the lower end of the range between $69.50 and $79.60-$80.00,” he added.

   Oil prices have been under pressure since Monday on falling stock markets, but the losses were exacerbated after the Conference Board said Tuesday that U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in July.

   Uncertainties about the health of the U.S. economy continue to be a drag on commodity and equity markets ahead of the release this week of fresh key data on jobs and the initial reading on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product.

   Meantime, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that the nation’s crude inventories jumped 3.1 million bbl in the week-ended July 23, while analysts had expected an average drop of 1.7 million bbl.

Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuels also rose less than expected, the API added.

   The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report its closely-watched supply data today at 10:30 AM ET, with traders and analysts waiting to see if there were any impacts from Tropical Storm Bonnie.

   At 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were near unchanged at $77.49 bbl, moving off a $76.88 bbl overnight low and down from Tuesday’s 2-1/2-month spot high at $79.69.

   September Brent futures were up 16cts at $76.29 bbl on the ICE Futures.

The WTI/Brent crude spread is at $1.20 bbl WTI premium, which is below the arbitrage level shippers need to breakeven.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures edged up 0.69cts to $2.0063 gal, while August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures eased 0.35cts to $2.0597.

P5 is the Pacific Northwest stocks.  As you look at the numbers demand is up.  Watch for prices to increase if demand continues to increase.  This could lead to higher prices over the next 2-3 months.  It may be time to fill up…?

   Bullish stock markets have underpinned recent oil price gains, but weak oil fundamentals and fears about slowing U.S. economic growth have held prices back. The euro remained at a two-month high against the dollar after UBS and Deutsche Bank reported better-than-expected earnings reports this morning. DuPont’s quarterly earnings also tripled, boosting U.S. equities.

   Meantime, investors expect fresh U.S. data on durable goods, consumer confidence and the final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product would shed some light on overall U.S. economy. Better-than-expected home sales data boosted investor morale yesterday.

   On the fundamentals, U.S. crude inventories in recent weeks have either grown or fallen less than analysts expected, with supply builds suggesting consumption remains tepid. The American Petroleum Institute is due to report supply data later today with the Energy Information Administration reporting its data Wednesday morning.

   Analysts expect to see rising supply for products and a drop in crude supply for the week-ended July 23 after Tropical Storm Bonnie prompted production shut-ins of over 428,000 bpd of crude in the Gulf of Mexico.

Expectations for a drop in crude supply are also seen boosting oil prices.

   At 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were up 49cts at $79.47 bbl, testing the 2-1/2-month high at $79.60 posted on Friday (7/23). On London’s ICE Futures, September Brent futures were up 49cts at $77.99 bbl. The WTI/Brent arbitrage at about $1.50 bbl is enough for shippers to breakeven.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures edged up 1.49cts to $2.0575 gal, holding below July 23′s three-week high of $2.0742.

August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures jumped 1.02cts to $2.1160, below the one-month high of $2.1574 reached on July 23.

   In other news, BP’s board officially agreed last night to replace Tony Hayward as chief executive of the company with Robert Dudley, an American who has been overseeing the company’s oil spill cleanup in the Gulf of Mexico. BP also reported a record earnings loss of $17.2 billion for second-quarter.

   Still, oil prices remain range-bound at the start of the new trading week, with the crude contract trading under $79 bbl and August heating oil and RBOB futures prices below last week’s highs but above $2.00 gal.

   The oil complex is also tracking weak equities ahead of the release of a raft of what are expected to be lackluster data regarding the U.S. economy this week, including durable goods, home sales, consumer confidence and the final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product. However, a weaker dollar limited the losses.

   In recent weeks, oil prices have been weighed down by a persistent supply overhang and economic uncertainties, although technical indicators have been supportive. The market also was bolstered by strong U.S.

corporate earnings reports last week.

   Meantime, the National Hurricane Center said there are no threatening storms in the Gulf of Mexico this morning after Tropical Storm Bonnie faded overnight.

   At 8:00 AM ET on Monday, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were down 64cts at $78.34 bbl after trading to an overnight high of $79.31, which is still off Friday’s 2-1/2-month high at $79.60.

   On London’s ICE Futures, September Brent futures were down 55cts at $76.90 bbl, after rising to an overnight high at $77.91. The WTI/Brent arbitrage at about $1.40 bbl is close to the $1.50 shippers need to breakeven.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures slipped 1.05cts to $2.0400 gal after trading overnight at a high $2.0600, which is still below Friday’s three-week high of $2.0742. August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures eased 2.57cts to $2.0965 after trading earlier at an overnight high of $2.1250, which is still off Friday’s one-month high of $2.1574.

   In other news, investors seem to welcome what appears to be the imminent replacement of Tony Haywood as chief executive of BP with Robert Dudley, an American who has been overseeing the company’s oil spill clean-up in the Gulf of Mexico.

   Reports say the changes could be announced later this evening after a meeting of the company’s board, but Dudley wouldn’t officially take over until October. BP has denied the speculation, though BP shares gained on those reports. BP is also expected to announce its second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday.

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   “There’s a sense by some traders that the storm fears was overplayed because most of the weather forecasters are now showing the storm won’t turn into a hurricane and we have plenty of supplies,” said analyst Phil Flynn at PFG Best in Chicago.

   At 8:00 AM ET on Friday, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were down 44cts at $78.86 bbl, posting an overnight high of $79.60, the highest level since May 6. On London’s ICE Futures, September Brent futures were down 43cts at $77.39 bbl, after rising to an overnight high at $78.10. The WTI/Brent arbitrage at about $1.50 bbl is enough for shippers to breakeven.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures slipped 0.85cts to $2.0539 gal after taking out resistance and trading overnight at a fresh three-week high of $2.0742. August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures eased 1.61cts to $2.1305, after trading earlier at fresh one-month high of $2.1574.

   Meantime, on Wall Street, stock index futures were higher in pre-market business, adding to Thursday’s strong rally, while the dollar index was also down 0.3 percent.

   Equities led oil prices higher Thursday after better-than-expected economic data from Europe boosted investor sentiment, aided by strong U.S.

corporate earnings reports and fears of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

   The storm is now heading to the Gulf of Mexico from southern Florida, and could reach southern Louisiana by Sunday, prompting companies to evacuate nonessential staff from offshore oil platforms and delaying BP’s efforts to contain the three-month oil spill by digging a relief well.

   The storm threat could still boost oil futures prices if offshore production and imports are curtailed, prompting traders to cover their shorts ahead of the weekend break, said Flynn, adding that technical indicators continue to point upward for prices.

   Meantime, fresh economic data from Europe this morning are bullish, showing U.K. gross domestic product grew at the fastest rate in four years during the second-quarter and Germany’s business confidence rose in July to the highest level in 20 years.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

dollar, better-than-expected economic data from Europe and strong U.S.

corporate earnings reports boosted equities.

   There’s a sense of optimism in the market after second-quarter earnings from Caterpillar, Eli Lilly and other companies beat Wall Street expectations this morning, outweighing disappointing fresh data on weekly U.S. jobless benefits claims and U.S. oil inventories, said analyst Phil Flynn at PFG Best in Chicago.

   The dollar fell to a fresh two-month low against the euro as traders moved to short the greenback following disappointing comments about the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The dollar index was down 0.8 percent at the top of the hour, bolstering oil prices. Technical indicators also continue to point upward for oil prices.

   At the 9:00 AM ET opening bell, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were up 67cts at $77.23 bbl. The contract tested initial resistance at $77.70 shortly after the open, with the next resistance level set at Wednesday’s

$78.57 three-week high.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures rose 1.72cts to $2.0064 gal, and could test initial resistance at $2.0500, which is still way off Monday’s three-week high at $2.0644.

   August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures climbed 2.33cts to $2.0911, just shy of Wednesday’s three-week high at $2.1058. If it breaks that level, the contract could test the next resistance level at $2.1300.

   The EIA data missed analysts’ expectations and were more bearish than the American Petroleum Institute’s data released late Tuesday.

   The immediate effect of the EIA data was to pressure both crude and product futures prices after a rally during overnight trade through the opening bell that was prompted by rising equities, strong corporate earnings reports and concerns about a tropical storm formation in the Caribbean.

   At 11:00 AM ET, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were down 49cts at

$77.09 bbl, after posting a three-week high of $78.57 earlier before the EIA data came out at 10:30 AM ET.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures dropped 2.16cts to $2.0031 gal after peaking earlier at $2.0487, which is still off Monday’s three-week high at $2.0644.

   August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures decreased 0.29cts to $2.0757, after trading to a fresh three-week high at $2.1073 earlier today.

   The EIA reported a build of 360,000 bbl in crude oil stocks, a build of

1.1 million bbl in gasoline and a build of 3.9 million bbl in distillate fuels for the week under review. Implied distillate demand fell by 169,000 bpd to 3.358 million bpd and implied gasoline demand rose 355,000 bpd to

9.435 million bpd.

   Citigroup analyst Tim Evans said, “The report was bearish overall, and more bearish for the products and crack spreads.”

   He added, “I think we have not fully priced in the data, because the market could go even lower. If you look at distillate numbers I’m not sure who would buy today. We have the highest level of inventories since 1982 for this time of the year.”

   NEW YORK (DTN) — New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures rose in overnight electronic business, with the newly minted spot-month crude contract, September delivery, rising to a three-week high above $78 bbl, on falling crude supplies, rising equities and strong corporate earnings reports that limited pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.

   The pre-market gains early Wednesday stretches a rally from Tuesday when oil and equity markets rebounded in late trade, aided by rumors of refinery glitches, concerns about a strengthening tropical storm in the Caribbean and expectations for a drop in crude inventories.

   On the fundamentals, the American Petroleum Institute reported a drawdown of 241,000 bbl in crude oil stocks, a drawdown of 412,000 bbl in gasoline and a build of 979,000 bbl in distillate fuels for the week-ended July 16. Implied distillate demand came in at 4.399 million bpd and implied gasoline demand was 9.332 million bpd, which are both respectable figures, according to Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn .

   The API data came within analysts’ expectations for crude and gasoline, although distillate figures were bullish compared to expectations. Traders are now awaiting more comprehensive inventory data from the Energy Information Administration due today at 10:30 AM ET.

   U.S. stock futures rose overnight after Apple Inc.’s earnings came in above Wall Street expectations. Oil futures have lately been tracking equities and the dollar, with some strong corporate earnings often boosting investor sentiment.

   U.S. economic data have been dismal in recent days, exacerbating talk of a possible double-dip recession. So, the market is eagerly awaiting a testimony later today by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before the Senate Banking Committee. Speculations the Fed could further cut interest rates by 25 basis points to zero to spur lending boosted markets yesterday, but some analysts think that’s unlikely to happen.

   Weather is also becoming an issue of concern for the U.S. oil industry after the National Hurricane Center this morning upgraded to 70 percent the chance of a tropical cyclone formation near the Dominican Republic and extending northward over the Atlantic. This is going to be a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said.

   The Gulf of Mexico accounts for nearly a third of U.S. oil output and is home to seven of the nation’s 10 busiest ports. States along the Gulf are home to a majority of the nation’s operable U.S. refining capacity.

   Oil prices are also enjoying technical support, which is partly why the prices remain resilient in the face of bad economic news over the past couple of days, said Beutel.

   At 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September NYMEX WTI crude futures were up 55cts at $78.13 bbl, after posting at three-week high of $78.25 in overnight trade. On a technical basis, the short-term trend remains up as the spot-month crude contract moves toward longer-term resistance at $78.40 and $79.59, prices that mark the 61.8 and 67 percent retracement levels of the downtrend from the May high of $87.15 through the low of $64.24.

   On London’s ICE Futures, September Brent futures were up 64cts at $76.86 bbl, after an earlier trade at $76.99. The WTI/Brent arbitrage at $1.27 bbl is still below the roughly $1.50 level needed to cover trans-Atlantic shipping costs.

   In products trade, August NYMEX No. 2 heating oil futures rose 1.43cts to $2.0390 gal after peaking earlier at $2.0427, which is still off Monday’s three-week high at $2.0644. Technically, the short-term uptrend endures with resistance between $2.0330 and $2.08, prices that mark the 50 percent and 67 percent retracement levels, respectively, of the previous minor downtrend from $2.1725 through the recent low of $1.8968.

   August NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures increased 2.04cts to $2.0990, which is still down from Monday’s three-week high at $2.1000. Technically, the short-term uptrend remains intact with resistance between $2.0705 and $2.1122, prices that mark the 50 percent and 67 percent retracement levels, respectively, of the previous minor downtrend from $2.1930 through the recent low of $1.9480.